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Prashant Premkumar Nair

Title: Impact of sustained lockdown during Covid-19 pandemic on behavioural dynamics through

evolutionary game theoretic model

Journal: Annals of Operations Research

Pandemics are black swan events that present the world with unique
challenges. Most often, people are ill equipped to deal with such
challenges due to lack of first-hand experience of having dealt with
a similar situation before. More importantly, panic among the general

population adds to the unsurmountable challenges of handling such
a situation. As a result, despite having the technical knowhow, lack of
an understanding of how people would behave poses as the single

common factor across similar crises. This study explores an evolutionary
game theoretic model to analyse the behavioural patterns of people to
The prevalent evolutionary stable state will help the governments determine the course of action and help the
governments to prolong the surge in number of cases. Our analyses and insights from real life data suggest that

as the duration of restrictions increases, it becomes increasingly difficult to prolong the surge. We also develop
a pandemic mitigation responsiveness index (PMRI) to validate our model using data from different countries of
the world. The index is a measure of a country’s responsiveness to the pandemic. Further, we use this index in

conjunction with Hofstede’s cultural dimension on IVR. Using Hofstede’s cultural dimension on IVR and our game-
theoretic model, the governments can conduct a scenario analysis based on various levels of PMRI. Accordingly,
they can take informed decisions on imposition of lockdown viz. the timing, the duration as well as the stringency
of the lockdown. Based on this, the governments may also choose to impose the lockdown in phase-wise manner
in the wake of a pandemic situation like the Covid-19 to control the economy as well as the influx of patients in a

manageable way.

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