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Sumod, S. D., Premkumar, P., Jeesha, K., &
Chowdhury, S. (2021). Is There a Method to Madness?
Predicting Success of Bollywood Movies. The Journal
of Prediction Markets, 15(2), 1-24.
The objective of the study is to develop a parsimonious model to predict the box office success of a Bollywood
movie before its release. A movie is considered successful if the revenue generated is greater than its budget, in
other words, a Revenue to Budget Ratio (RBR) greater than 1. An original data set of 1698 Hindi movies released
across a period of 13 years is used to identify the success factors of a movie in the Indian context. Predictive
models are developed using traditional methodologies like multiple regression and logistic regression, as well
as, contemporary approaches like regression trees and classification trees. The results highlight a unique mix of
elements that a producer should consider to ensure the success of a movie in the highly competitive Indian
movie market.
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